October 8, 2020 Personal Wealth The Rational Reminder Podcast Episode 119: The Stock Market vs. Elections, and Incentives in Financial Planning Thank you for tuning in to this episode of the Rational Reminder. We start this show with some great news about the comment section and our migration to Discourse. Having an open dialogue has always been crucial for us—it has even led to our latest hire—so we felt it was time to add more structure to it. We then talk about mortgage rates and why so many people do not know that it is possible to negotiate them down even further. There is often a big gap between what is publicly advertised and what you can actually get, so it’s worth shopping around. Following this, we touch on IPOs, SPACs, and why some are saying it is similar to 1999. In the heart of this discussion, we unpack the relationship between the US election and stock market returns. If you are like Ben, perhaps you thought there is not much material difference, and while over the short-term there is not, the election cycle data is truly astonishing. We find out the fascinating explanation of why there are higher excess returns under Democratic leadership, and it is probably not what you think! Moving on, we chat with our newest advisor Jordan Tarasoff where he sheds light on his previous employment at a sales and product-centric advisory firm. We talk about how this affects both the customer and the advisor, and Jordan ends with talking about his positive time at PWL so far. To hear more, be sure to tune in today! Watch this conversation on the Rational Reminder YouTube channel Subscribe to the Rational Reminder podcast Key Points From This Episode: Some great news about migrating the comment section to Discourse. [0:00:09.3] The new PWL team member we are welcoming and our shop opening. [0:01:27.3] Why Cameron recommends everyone watch The Social Dilemma. [0:04:19.3] Recommended books: Open and Succession Planning for Financial Advisors. [0:08:27.3] Results from a survey around people’s knowledge of mortgage rates. [0:11:43.3] Some of the reasons that mortgages can be tricky. [0:14:20.3] What is happening with IPOs and why it is being likened to 1999. [0:15:26.3] Insights from Hendrick Bessembinder about how investors should use his findings to structure their portfolios. [0:19:16.3] A follow up about safe withdrawal rates we touched on a while back. [0:21:44.3] Today’s investment topic: The US election and stock market relationship and Ben’s assumptions prior to research. [0:24:13.3] Are returns affected by US elections? Hear Ben’s findings. [0:27:26.3] The relationship between beliefs and optimism in the market. [0:30:31.3] Unpacking the link between volatility and the election. [0:32:09.3] Looking long-term at the stock market through election cycles. [0:33:14.3] How the timing of a Democratic president being elected results in positive excess returns. [0:39:26.3] The short-term effects of the election are minimal compared to changes over an entire election cycle. [0:44:39.3] Get to know Jordan Tarasoff, PWL’s newest advisor, and his previous experience. [0:47:01.3] Some of the conflicts and tension Jordan experienced in his former advisory role. [0:49:33.3] What to keep in mind about adding segregated funds to your portfolio. [0:54:47.3] Why you should not put a great deal of money into life insurance. [1:01:11.3] The flawed hiring model that Jordan experienced at his former workplace. [1:02:49.3] Jordan’s advice for anyone with a product-centric financial advisor. [1:05:49.3] What PWL does better, according to Jordan. [1:07:55.3] Bad advice of the week! [1:08:57.3] Books From this Episode: Open — https://amzn.to/3jIwjBd Succession Planning Financial Advisors Building – https://amzn.to/3d5UUxv Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Mark Hebner on The Rational Reminder Episode 116 — https://www.pwlcapital.com/the-rational-reminder-podcast-episode-116-mark-hebner-recovering-from-active-management-through-education/ Rational Reminder Episode 117 — https://www.pwlcapital.com/the-rational-reminder-podcast-episode-117-a-message-from-the-bank-of-canada-and-safe-withdrawal-rates-with-factor-tilts/ Mortgage Consumer Survey — https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/data-and-research/consumer-surveys/mortgage-consumer-survey-2019 ‘IPO Market Parties Like It’s 1999’ — https://www.wsj.com/articles/ipo-market-parties-like-its-1999-11601052419 ‘Political climate, optimism, and investment decisions’ — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1386418117301155 ‘With Greater Uncertainty Comes Greater Volatility’ https://jii.pm-research.com/content/early/2019/10/25/jii.2019.1.077 ‘The Presidential Puzzle’ — https://www.jstor.org/stable/3648176 ‘Political Cycles and Stock Returns’ — https://www.nber.org/papers/w23184 ‘Time varying risk aversion’ — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X18300461 ‘Partisan Financial Cycles’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1900125 ‘These Popular ETFs Will Ruin Your Retirement. Buy These 7.5% Dividends Instead’ — https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelfoster/2020/08/29/these-popular-etfs-will-ruin-your-retirement-buy-these-75-dividends-instead/#49b5d6723d27 Share: Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email CIRO Advisor Report
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