Mark Sutcliffe April 15, 2016 Starting Out In sports, politics and investing, there are no crystal balls How many experts predicted at the start of the season that no Canadian teams would make the NHL playoffs? Who picked all the right teams in their NCAA bracket? Which political pundits correctly called a Liberal majority at the beginning of the last election campaign? Who said six months ago that Donald Trump would still be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination come April? As the saying goes, predictions are tough, especially about the future. Look at the people with real expertise in everything from sports to politics. Despite spending their days and nights absorbed in the most up-to-date information, despite getting to talk to the insiders and experts on a regular basis, their prognostications aren’t consistently reliable. If an NFL panellist gets slightly more than 50 per cent of his predictions right, he’s considered a genius. Why would we expect investing to be any different? Is it really believable that a stock broker in Ottawa would have enough information to know which direction the market is going? And it’s even harder to beat the market because the market already reflects the sum total of everyone’s expectations. You can pick the overwhelming favourite in a hockey game or election and look smart if they win. But the market prices the favourites accordingly, making it harder to make money off the easy choices. So don’t try to predict the future or believe anyone who says they can. Share: Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email CIRO Advisor Report
Personal Wealth Mark Sutcliffe Beat the market? Most mutual funds don’t even meet the market Apr 26, 2017 Personal Wealth