A prediction sounds thoughtful, reasoned, based on some type of analysis. And yet many predictions turn out wrong, so many that it’s hard to rely on any of them.

At this time of year, there are typically articles that go back and review predictions made at the beginning of the year. The conclusion tends to be that the success rate of predictions is no better than if someone had simply chosen outcomes at random.

Here’s one story that talks about what Wall Street got wrong this year: http://ti.me/1m64qVF

But what’s noteworthy about this isn’t so much that the experts make mistakes, or even that they’re willing to admit when they do, but that we continue to expect that there’s a chance they’ll get it right. No one can predict the future, especially the financial markets. And when they do, it’s more because of a lucky guess than a sensible prediction.