Mark Sutcliffe December 5, 2016 Market Research More evidence that predictions are hard, especially about the future The outcome of the U.S. presidential election was a big surprise. But even though the polls showed Hillary Clinton in the lead, there were people who were worried enough about Donald Trump winning that they pulled their money out of the markets before election day. I know two or three people who did just that. And it turns out they were right about the outcome, but wrong about the implications. Trump won but the markets went up instead of down. So instead of profiting from their prediction (or lucky guess), they missed out on the resulting market gains. This is just another example of how you can’t predict the future and you can’t time the markets. It’s hard enough to guess right about what’s going to happen next, let alone accurately predict the consequences of that event. Odds are high you’ll get one or both of those guesses wrong. The financial media often showcases people who make good market predictions, but that’s like sharing the story of someone who wins the lottery rather than all those whose numbers never came up. The smart approach is to rely on evidence, not guesswork. The views of the author are his alone and may not represent the views of PWL Capital. Any data, information and content on this blog is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer of advisory services. Mark Sutcliffe is not regulated by Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC), nor a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF). Share: Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email IIROC AdvisorReport
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