Most economists expected a recession in the first half of 2023. A couple of large banks collapsed in the US and the US Congress couldn’t get its house in order while the debt ceiling hung like the sword of Damocles. A new war broke out in the Middle East. In the face of all these challenges, one would be excused for expecting a terrible year in stock markets. Yet the results have been quite the opposite as we look back.
You’ll see in Ray’s annual market and economic commentary how well markets performed despite all the headwinds I just described. Inflation is back in line; bonds delivered a very decent return on the heels of a terrible 2022 and stocks delivered double-digit performances for the most part.
There is one consistently underestimated component in all the typical forecasts of doom and gloom. It is the power of human ingenuity. Beyond the obvious innovations like large language AI models, this ingenuity has taken the form of unprecedented levels of government support programs during the COVID crisis, which turned the tides in stock markets, or the ability for central banks to come up with new programs to rescue an irresponsible banking system in the US, such that the failures of a couple of large banks didn’t spread to the broader banking system.
Stock markets reward investors for this ingenuity time and time again, but only for those who stick around when things seem to be at their worst. Our investment philosophy is designed to keep you invested to capture this whenever it comes, regardless of what the pundits get right or wrong.
Through all of this, the Peter Guay Team welcomed Daniele Degano, a seasoned financial planner and former high school math teacher at Loyola High School. His keen intellect and insatiable appetite for learning have rapidly made him an invaluable member of the team. Kevin Ligot also achieved his Investment Advisor designation this year, a key step on his path to becoming a portfolio manager in the team. I couldn’t be prouder of how the team has come together this year as we evolve and improve the many ways in which we serve you. As we move into 2024, we’re working on a new and improved website, expected to launch in the first half of the year. We’re excited to get this published and look forward to your feedback.
I will close by expressing my gratitude to you, for your trust in my team and the firm, for your constructive feedback that has helped us improve and for your generous referrals over the years. Trusting us with your friends and family is the greatest compliment we can receive, and we truly appreciate it.
Best regards, Peter