Let’s set the record straight once and for all: Dividend ETFs are Value ETFs
In order to convince those non-believers, I’ll need to pull out all the stops and run a 3-factor regression analysis* on the monthly returns for some of the most popular Canadian dividend and value ETFs. For the analysis, I’ll use the following ETFs:
1. Market Coefficient (a.k.a. “beta”)
ETFs with a beta equal to 1.00 would have a similar risk to the overall Canadian stock market. As we can see by the results below, the dividend ETFs (value ETFs) do have slightly less (more) risk than the overall market. This is why investors generally conclude that dividend stocks are less risky. The T-stat for each fund’s coefficient was higher than 2.0, indicating a high level of significance for the results.
2. Value Coefficient
This is the most important result from the analysis. A coefficient of +1.00 would indicate a deep value fund. The dividend ETFs have significantly high value coefficients (even higher than the value ETFs). In other words, the expected returns of all four ETFs are highly dependent on the returns of value stocks in general (relative to growth stocks).
3. Small-Cap Coefficient
XDV, XCV, and CRQ all have slightly negative small-cap coefficients (most likely indicating a slight tilt towards larger companies). This makes sense, as many dividend payers are bigger, more well-established companies. The only exception is CDZ, with a positive and highly significant small-cap coefficient of 0.20. During the financial crisis, S&P’s strict index methodology forced the ETF to boot out the largest banks and insurance companies (since they failed to increase dividends), replacing them with smaller dividend paying companies that still met their criteria. As the regression results show, this has increased the small-cap risk of CDZ dramatically (and with only 58 holdings, this doesn’t seem like an ideal choice for riskier small-cap/value investing).
For all of you die-hard dividend junkies out there, I’m certainly not disagreeing with your investment strategy (on the most part). Dividend investing is just another form of value investing, and should therefore be expected to have higher returns. My only advice is that dividend investors take the time to better understand the risks they are assuming when they invest in undiversified dividend ETFs.
*Methodology for Construction of Canadian Regression Factors:
Mkt-TBill= MSCI Canada IMI Index – DEX 30 Day T-Bill Index
HML = ½(MSCI Canada Small Cap Value Index + MSCI Canada Value Index) – ½(MSCI Canada Small Cap Growth Index + MSCI Canada Growth Index)
SMB = ⅓(MSCI Canada Small Cap Value Index + MSCI Canada Small Cap Index + MSCI Canada Small Cap Growth Index) - ⅓(MSCI Canada Value Index + MSCI Canada Index + MSCI Canada Growth Index)