Every six months, PWL’s Portfolio Managers converge in Montreal to discuss and debate the current state of economies, markets and asset classes. Raymond Kerzerho, PWL’s Director of Research who writes the monthly Economic Pulse, compiles and tracks a number of economic statistics, market indicators and asset class valuation metrics to feed this discussion. The result is an asset class dashboard that guides our re-balancing decisions going forward.
I’ve attached the Executive Summary of our most recent meeting. As always, don’t hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or would like to discuss.
Tony & Peter
Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton are not household names on Bay street or Wall street for that matter. They are three professors at London Business School who have built a long term database (since 1900!) of T-bill, bond and stock market returns for developed countries around the world. This database provides some compelling insights into the behavior of stock vs. bonds in different countries.
At PWL, we continue to base our investment decisions on this type of long term research. Read Raymond Kerzerho’s latest Economic Pulse, to find out more about their insights, as well as the research coming out of Dartmouth and Chicago Universities.
Tony & Peter
Markets rebounded strongly in October, driven by improving news out of Europe. Concrete steps are being proposed and adopted to deal with the situation in Greece, and by corollary in Italy, Portugal and the rest. We know these solutions won’t be perfect, and we know they will take time (politicians are involved after all…), but the big issues are being addressed.
Perhaps more so than ever before, market pressures are bringing about political action. This is the new democracy. By the time the media see the problem as ‘solved’ the market will have long since recovered.
Please refer to PWL's October Market Statistics for more information.
Prime Minister Papandreou’s announcement on Monday that he would hold a referendum on the next austerity package certainly surprised markets. By Thursday, markets have almost recovered from the earlier losses in the week on news that the referendum won’t take place.
This example reminds us that we can’t predict markets in the short term. We also know that bonds yielding 2 to 3% won’t cover inflation and taxes in the long run. Your portfolio takes a balanced approach to both short term market risk and longer term inflation risk to make sure your objectives are met.
What can we control in the short term? By offsetting taxable gains with losses we can ensure your taxes are minimized. Tax loss ‘harvesting’ will be taking place over the coming months.
As always, if you have any questions, don’t hesitate to call.
Tony & Peter